
Figure 1. eCommerce fulfillment is different from bricks and mortar, as evidenced by this real-world experience.
In 2005 Procter and Gamble coined the term “First Moment of Truth” to describe the first 3-5 seconds the consumer’s eyes meet a product on the store shelf, likely adjacent to a competitor, and they make the decision to purchase that product over the competitor’s (First Moment of Truth (FMOT) – Marketing Dictionary – Upnify). The context of this phrase is related to the role of product and/or package design as part of the winning recipe for success in the marketplace.
In the recent world of eCommerce, where sales are expected to grow at a CCAGR of 7.8% between 2024 and 2027 (51 ECommerce Statistics In 2024 (Global And U.S. Data) – SellersCommerce), the First Moment of Truth is being replaced with “The First Moment of Grace” (FMOG). The First Moment of Grace begins when the consumer opens the door of their home and frequently witnesses a partially crushed or perhaps leaking package on their doorstep.

Figure 2. The goal of manufacturers is to delight the purchaser when they engage the buyer—First Moment of Truth! Frequently, for products purchased through eCommerce, that moment of delight can be replaced with frustration and a decision to make: "Do I keep it (The First Moment of Grace) or return it and live with the hassle it creates in my life?"
THE PRINCIPLE OF ECOMMERCE GRACE
The customer expects their products to arrive undamaged. However, the principle of eCommerce Grace states that consumers will accept some level of product damage as long as:
- The damage does not cause the product to be non-functional.
- The damage does not cause the product to be unsafe.
- The product is not intended to be a gift that would be embarrassing to give.
If these three conditions are met, the consumer routinely offers grace to the fulfillment process and will keep the product. They will overlook the dents, dings, and scratches to avoid the time and effort lost to the return process.
The offering of grace by the consumer is not a “heart-felt” grace. Rather, it is a “practical” offering that is rooted in the inconvenience of product return. (Latest Returns Statistics | Ecommerce) Business)

Figure 3. If the damage is not critical to the performance of the product, consumers frequently offer “grace,” overlooking blemishes and keeping products rather than returning them.
THE FIRST MOMENT OF GRACE IS NOT A WIN… AND THE BIG PLAYERS KNOW IT
The big online retailers eCommerce businesses know that “delight” is the only response that is appropriate from the consumer unboxing experience, but they don’t have the necessary information or infrastructure to make a systemic reduction in product damage (The High Cost of Damaged Products – Returnalyze Returns Analytics). The current test standard for eCommerce “qualification” is the ISTA-6 standard. The ISTA-6 standard, which is broadly used to assess the suitability of packaging for eCommerce fulfillment, is part of the problem.
Around 2014, when eCommerce was still in its formative years, the standard was developed and adopted by industry. Its focus was the prevention of “cumulative damage.” What has been learned since then is that (1) the consumer has relaxed their tolerance for non-critical damage (The First Moment of Grace) and (2) the ISTA-6 test methodology does not generate the 95-99 percentile dynamic “events” of fulfillment, which are large enough to create critical product failures for many categories of goods or types of products.
THE PHYSICS OF ECOMMERCE: IMPROVING FULFILLMENT OUTCOMES
Currently, the packaging guidance for eCommerce fulfillment is typically based on the physical size and weight of the product, cost, and qualitative judgments of product fragility, not the forces of fulfillment it will face from “pick-to-porch.” That said, significant reductions in eCommerce delivery damage require the integration of energy-based thinking AND hard data about fulfillment forces.
SES Force-4 has developed an energy-based approach to fulfillment packaging that is gaining momentum. At its highest level, moving the needle on damage reduction is expressed by the Equation of eCommerce Fulfillment Forces.

Figure 4. The concept suggests that the energy imparted to a package (from drop loads, impact, vibration, stack loading, etc.) reduces the energy available for the entire packaging system to absorb. This energy, relative to the type of loading, must be less than the amount of energy required to cause damage to the product inside.
CREATING PHYSICS-BASED PROBABILISTIC MODELS FOR FULFILLMENT
Fulfillment Forces
SES Force-4 has developed methods to measure all the dynamic forces of eCommerce fulfillment, including machinery, logistics, and delivery. The force data collected are used to create specific packing guidance (pack type and dunnage requirements, E and E) based on the probability of occurrence of a particular force/energy level. This information can be used on an order-by-order basis to reduce damage for the eCommerce fulfillment journey. When appropriate, this approach enables the creation models for problematic damage- or complaint-generating fulfillment routes, which can include parcel handling systems, 3PL carriers, and seasonal variations.
Characterizing the failure energy of products is not as daunting as it may seem. In the short term, there are category-based approaches SES Force-4 has developed that can be implemented on a practical level to create the data that enables an order-by-order packing solution to the inequality shown in Figure 4. Failure energy levels can likely become an attribute on the product data sheet for mid-size and large manufacturers in the long term.
Having both fulfillment force models and product failure models allows for the determination of the amount of energy-absorbing dunnage needed, including the intrinsic dunnage of the packaging type (mailer or box), for the specific product(s) being purchased and delivered. This process can be completed at a very high rate, in real time and used for every package shipped. Optimized packing guidance can be given to manual packers or codified for automated packing systems for specific products or product mixes to optimize shipping costs
FOCUS ON THE FIRST MOMENT OF TRUTH AND NOT DEFAULT TO THE FIRST MOMENT OF GRACE
Customers are the life blood of all manufacturers and retailers. For all industries, CPG in particular, quality and the FMOT on the store shelf were strategic drivers of the initial user experience prior to eCommerce. Although consumers have embraced eCommerce and frustratingly adopted a posture of grace for non-critical damage, improvements are necessary for continued growth. SES Force-4 has developed a path to achieving that growth.
Clint Haynes, Sr. Vice President and Founder of Stress Engineering Services’ SES Force-4 organization, has steadily grown the Cincinnati practice area while introducing breakthrough capabilities. He has a specialized focus on areas of medical, outdoor, and product innovation
Ref: B017-PG – Blog on FMOT vs. FMOG in sustainable Packaging & Logistics
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